World merchandise trade volume growth seen slowing

World merchandise trade volume growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, as per a World Trade Organization (WTO) report. The projection for global GDP growth is 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026. While the 2025 merchandise trade forecast has been revised upwards from the April and August projections, the downgrade for 2026 results in a similar overall impact over the two-year horizon. This indicates that the tariff impact has shifted into 2026, with the slight improvement reflecting that some inventory build-up in early 2025--particularly of durable goods--will not be fully reversed in 2026. WTO economists highlight that the key downside risk to the forecast is the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty to more economies and sectors. On the upside, sustained growth in trade for AI-related goods and services could provide a medium-term boost to global trade.

Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth in 2025, with modest performances also anticipated from South and Central America, the Caribbean and the Middle East, while Europe will likely see slower growth. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are expected to show robust export gains but face weakening trends ahead. On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to experience the fastest growth, contrasting with a contraction in North America. In 2026, only North America, Europe and CIS will post an improvement in export performance; all regions will record weaker import performance in 2026, informed a release.

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