Middle East oil shipments rebound to 80 pc of pre-war levels, eroding Iran’s Hormuz leverage

Middle East crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative regional bypass routes have recovered to nearly 80% of pre-war volumes—reaching roughly 13 million barrels per day—severely undercutting Tehran’s ability to leverage maritime chokepoint disruptions during ongoing back-channel talks with Washington. According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, a combination of US Navy-backed escorted convoys, discreet transits, and increased output from Saudi Arabia and the UAE has restored vital seaborne energy flows despite persistent regional security risks. Conversely, Iran’s own crude exports have plummeted under an enforced maritime blockade, with its floating offshore stockpiles dropping from 29 million barrels to 15 million barrels in September. As domestic revenues dwindle and export options to buyers in Asia contract, analysts warn that Tehran's diminished leverage over global energy corridors could either accelerate a diplomatic resolution or provoke further asymmetric escalation in the Gulf, as per a report.

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