Maritime disruptions likely to push India’s Russian crude imports towards 3 million bpd

India’s crude oil imports from Russia could reach a record 3 million barrels per day if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea persist, according to analysis by Kpler. Driven by escalating Middle East conflicts, Indian refiners have rapidly increased Russian crude purchases from 1.0 million to roughly 2.6 million barrels per day, making Russia account for nearly 55% of India’s total oil imports in July. While Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline provides a partial cushion of 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day via the Red Sea, ongoing maritime security risks make Russian shipments from Black Sea hubs like Novorossiysk India’s primary supply hedge. Consequently, uninterrupted Black Sea logistics have surpassed Persian Gulf routes in near-term strategic importance for Indian energy security, said a report.

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