India’s overall exports seen growing at 3 pc in FY26

India’s overall exports are expected to touch $850 billion in 2025-26, up marginally from $825 billion last year, according to an analysis by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). In FY26, goods exports are likely to stay broadly flat, squeezed by weak global demand and renewed US tariff pressure, while services exports may inch past $400 billion. In 2024-25, total exports reached about $825 billion, split between $438 billion in merchandise and $387 billion in services. 

Meanwhile, the external environment continues to be unpredictable. The US, under President Donald Trump, has sidelined World Trade Organisation disciplines in favour of steep unilateral tariffs. India’s exports to the US fell 21% between May and November 2025 under the current 50% tariff regime. Unless Washington rolls back the additional 25% penalty tariff linked to India’s Russian oil purchases—or concludes a trade deal—exports to India’s largest market risk further erosion, as per a report.

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