India, EU trade deal seen absorbing exports to the US

The European Union could shoulder much of India’s US-bound exports if a trade deal is finalised quickly, according to an analysis. In 2024, India exported $79.4 billion worth of goods to the US, almost matching the $77.5 billion shipped to the EU. Of this, nearly $67.2 billion—about 85%—could find room in the European market, given the bloc’s large and diversified import appetite. While Europe offers India a large alternative market and a buffer against US tariff shocks, the gains would depend on the fine print of the trade pact. Without deep tariff cuts, mutual recognition of standards and flexible rules of origin, exporters risk facing higher costs and slower turnaround times, diluting the opportunity. Shrimp is a case in point as India sold $1.85 billion worth to the US in 2024 but only $493 million to Europe, even as the bloc imported $3.03 billion overall, as per a report.

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