Geopolitics again takes centre stage in tanker market

“We forecast balanced supply and demand growth for the crude tanker market in 2026 but a weakening in 2027 as ship deliveries increase. Unfortunately, the product tanker market is expected to continue to weaken during both years as ship deliveries hit 15-year highs and supply therefore outpaces demand,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

It forecast crude tanker demand growth of 1-2% in 2026 and 0-1% in 2027. Supply growth is forecast at 1.5% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively.

In the product tanker segment, supply growth is forecast at 5.5% for both 2026 and 2027 and demand growth is estimated at 0.5-1.5%

“According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil oversupply could average 4.1 million barrels per day in 2026. We expect that inventory building will continue in 2026 and support crude tanker demand, but we foresee that may end in 2027,” says Rasmussen.

The IEA predicts that oil demand and refinery throughput will continue to grow in the emerging and developing economies of Asia and Africa. Developing economies are meantime expected to see lower refinery throughput and only very minor demand growth.

The Houthis have confirmed an end to their attacks on ships in the Red Sea as the Gaza ceasefire still holds. So far, the announcement has not resulted in a significant increase in tankers transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Should routings fully normalise, it forecasts a 2-3% reduction in demand compared to earlier.

The latest US, UK and EU sanctions and US pressure on buyers could reduce Russian oil exports. In recent weeks, one has noticed a 20% reduction in crude tanker loadings while product tankers appear unimpacted. In addition, Russian oil in floating storage has tripled, possibly indicating a challenge in finding buyers.

As Russia has historically been successful at evading sanctions, it has not yet included the effects of lower Russian exports in its forecast. Any reduction in exports is likely to reduce demand for sanctioned tankers while increasing demand for mainstream tankers as importers turn to unsanctioned markets to replace Russian oil, the analysis said.

“Despite an expected weakening of market conditions in 2027, crude tankers are overall forecast to fare better than product tankers during 2026 and 2027. Mainstream crude tankers could see further support if Russian exports suffer due to sanctions. On the other hand, both sectors could see slower demand if Red Sea routings normalise,” says Rasmussen.

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