AI-related infrastructure giving impetus to global trade: Report

The global race to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence is giving world trade strong momentum at a time of higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. 

This is one of the key findings of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyses international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It offers the most comprehensive view of globalisation available. 

AI buildout boosts global trade

The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited

At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes. But the effects remained concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade policy created a separate headwind. US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

Trade outlook upgraded despite recent shocks

Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

Globalisation reaches a new record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader development of globalisation based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, globalisation reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment. 

All four flow categories contributed to the new record, reaching higher levels of internationalisation. Information flows remain the most globalised, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalised, as per the report.

Please visit our youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@ikargosindia for fortnightly logistics news analysis and more!